Severe weather forecast across parts of southeastern Europe through at least Dec. 17. Possible transport, business, and utility disruptions.
Event
A combination of heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds are forecast across parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia through at least Dec. 17. Snowfall and sleet are also possible over mountainous parts of the region. The most severe weather impacts are expected in parts of eastern and southern Bosnia and Herzegovina, much of Montenegro, and northern Serbia, Dec. 16.
As of Dec. 15, the respective meteorological agencies have issued the following weather warnings Dec. 15-16:
- Orange heavy rainfall warnings (the middle level in a three-tier scale): Livno, Mostar, and Trebinje regions in Bosnia and Herzegovina; across Montenegro; and Backa and Banat regions in Serbia.
- Orange strong wind warnings: Across northern Montenegro and Banat Region in Serbia.
- Yellow heavy rainfall warnings: Banja Luka, Bihac, and Foca regions in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Belgrade and Srem regions in Serbia.
- Yellow thunderstorm warnings: Backa, Banat, Belgrade, and Srem regions in Serbia.
- Yellow strong wind warnings: Banja Luka, Foca, Livno, Mostar, Sarajevo, and Trebinje regions in Bosnia and Herzegovina; southern and coastal regions of Montenegro; and Pomoravlje Region in Serbia.
Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.
Hazardous Conditions
The storms could produce rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water and in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.
Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout the affected area.
Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.
The disruptive weather will likely cause some delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations along the Adriatic coast of Montenegro if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.
Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved – it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
Source: Crisis 24